What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 12¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.10.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 12% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 12%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Mexico tariff rate on Kalshi

If the general import tariff rate on imports from Mexico into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox News, MSNBC, White House, The Wall Street Journal, the United States Congress, Semafor, ABC, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times, the President of the United States.

Market says (typical open contract)

12%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

23% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
12¢ (now)	0.7¢	$3.08	12.7%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the tariff rate on Mexico imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? · 20% or above	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	63	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the tariff rate on Mexico imports be at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027? · 30% or above	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	16	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the tariff rate on Mexico imports be at least 10% on Jan 1, 2027? · 10% or above	82¢	82%	1.0¢	—	35%	2	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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