What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.77.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 51% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Tariff rate China on Kalshi

If the general import tariff rate on imports from People's Republic of China into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 15%, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fox News, MSNBC, White House, The Wall Street Journal, the United States Congress, Semafor, ABC, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times, the President of the United States.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

99% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
49¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.79	50.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 20% on Jan 1, 2027? · 20% or above	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	3,813	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 50% on Jan 1, 2027? · 50% or above	33¢	33%	1.5¢	—	66%	2,326	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 30% on Jan 1, 2027? · 30% or above	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	1,656	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 15% on Jan 1, 2027? · 15% or above	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	1,434	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 10% on Jan 1, 2027? · 10% or above	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	384	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the tariff rate on People's Republic of China imports be at least 100% on Jan 1, 2027? · 100% or above	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	2	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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