What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.48.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 1% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather

Hourly Directional Chicago Metro Temperature on Kalshi

If the temperature recorded at Chicago Metro Area for Nov 10, 2026 at 5 AM EST as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 48.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Kalshi.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

1% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the temp in Chicago Metro Area be above 42.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 43° or above	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	3,427	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the temp in Chicago Metro Area be above 43.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 44° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,090	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the temp in Chicago Metro Area be above 46.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 47° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	965	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the temp in Chicago Metro Area be above 41.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 42° or above	82¢	82%	1.0¢	—	35%	654	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the temp in Chicago Metro Area be above 44.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 45° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	417	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the temp in Chicago Metro Area be above 45.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 46° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	102	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the temp in Chicago Metro Area be above 40.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 41° or above	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	60	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the temp in Chicago Metro Area be above 48.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 49° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the temp in Chicago Metro Area be above 47.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 48° or above	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC
Will the temp in Chicago Metro Area be above 39.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 40° or above	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Nov 10, 10:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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