Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Hourly Directional NYC Temperature on Kalshi
If the temperature recorded at New York City for Nov 10, 2026 at 5 AM EST as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 51.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Synoptic Data.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the temp in New York City be above 45.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 46° or above | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 2,000 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the temp in New York City be above 47.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 48° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,428 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the temp in New York City be above 46.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 47° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 867 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the temp in New York City be above 44.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 45° or above | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 622 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the temp in New York City be above 43.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 44° or above | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the temp in New York City be above 42.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 43° or above | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the temp in New York City be above 51.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 52° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the temp in New York City be above 50.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 51° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the temp in New York City be above 49.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 50° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
| Will the temp in New York City be above 48.99° on Nov 10, 2026 at 5am EST? · 49° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 10:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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