Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Temu Credit Card Spend on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 98 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 98 ? · Above 98 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 07, 03:29 UTC |
| Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 96 ? · Above 96 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 07, 03:29 UTC |
| Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 122 ? · Above 122 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 07, 03:29 UTC |
| Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 120 ? · Above 120 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 07, 03:29 UTC |
| Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 118 ? · Above 118 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 07, 03:29 UTC |
| Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 116 ? · Above 116 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 07, 03:29 UTC |
| Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 114 ? · Above 114 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 07, 03:29 UTC |
| Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 112 ? · Above 112 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 07, 03:29 UTC |
| Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 110 ? · Above 110 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 07, 03:29 UTC |
| Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 108 ? · Above 108 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 07, 03:29 UTC |
| Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 106 ? · Above 106 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 07, 03:29 UTC |
| Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 104 ? · Above 104 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 07, 03:29 UTC |
| Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 102 ? · Above 102 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 07, 03:29 UTC |
| Will Temu Monthly Credit Card Spend for November 2026 be above 100 ? · Above 100 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 07, 03:29 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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