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Tesla energy business on Kalshi
If Tesla deploys more than 50 GWh of energy products in a single quarter starting with Q1 2025 and before Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Tesla.
Market says (typical open contract)
12%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
24% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12¢ (now) | 0.7¢ | $3.08 | 12.7% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027? · Above 15 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 14,340 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027? · Above 30 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 12,486 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027? · Above 20 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 10,054 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
| How much will Tesla's energy business grow before 2027? · Above 50 GWh of energy deployed in a single quarter | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,736 | Apr 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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