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Track & Field Outdoor World Records on Kalshi
If any woman officially breaks (not ties) the outdoor track & field world record for the Women's Marathon after Issuance and in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: World Athletics.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
87% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 43¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.00 | 44.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's Polevault after Issuance and in 2026? · Men's Polevault | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 10,597 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's 110m Hurdles after Issuance and in 2026? · Men's 110m Hurdles | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 9,750 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's 1500m after Issuance and in 2026? · Men's 1500m | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 7,673 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's Marathon after Issuance and in 2026? · Men's Marathon | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 1,645 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's 800m after Issuance and in 2026? · Men's 800m | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 1,322 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's 400m after Issuance and in 2026? · Men's 400m | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,191 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any woman break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Women's 100m after Issuance and in 2026? · Women's 100m | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 280 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's 3km Steeplechase after Issuance and in 2026? · Men's 3km Steeplechase | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 211 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's 100m after Issuance and in 2026? · Men's 100m | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 151 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's 200m after Issuance and in 2026? · Men's 200m | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 138 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any woman break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Women's Polevault after Issuance and in 2026? · Women's Polevault | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 68 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any woman break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Women's 400m Hurdles after Issuance and in 2026? · Women's 400m Hurdles | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 56 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any man break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Men's 5km after Issuance and in 2026? · Men's 5km | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 49 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any woman break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Women's 800m after Issuance and in 2026? · Women's 800m | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 36 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any woman break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Women's 200m after Issuance and in 2026? · Women's 200m | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 7 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any woman break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Women's 1500m after Issuance and in 2026? · Women's 1500m | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 6 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any woman break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Women's 400m after Issuance and in 2026? · Women's 400m | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 4 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any woman break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Women's 5km after Issuance and in 2026? · Women's 5km | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 3 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any woman break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Women's Marathon after Issuance and in 2026? · Women's Marathon | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will any woman break (not tie) the outdoor world record for the Women's 3km Steeplechase after Issuance and in 2026? · Women's 3km Steeplechase | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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