What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 94¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.21.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 94% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 94%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Federal hemp status of 3 mg THC beverages on Kalshi

If, as of 11:59 PM ET on Nov 19, 2027, federal law treats a hemp-derived beverage intended for human ingestion containing 3 milligrams or more of Total THC per Container as lawful hemp excluded from the Controlled Substances Act definition of marihuana rather than as a Schedule I controlled substance, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: New York Times, United States Code, Federal Register.

Market says (typical open contract)

94%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

12% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%
94¢ (now)	0.4¢	$0.21	94.4%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law on Nov 13, 2026? · On Nov 13, 2026	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	14,538	Nov 14, 04:59 UTC
Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law on Dec 10, 2026? · On Dec 10, 2026	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	12%	11,824	Dec 11, 04:59 UTC
Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law on Mar 13, 2027? · On Mar 13, 2027	64¢	64%	1.6¢	—	72%	2,401	Mar 14, 04:59 UTC
Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law on Nov 19, 2027? · On Nov 19, 2027	18¢	18%	1.1¢	—	37%	701	Nov 20, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.