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TIME’s Person of the Year on Kalshi
If Scott Colom is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: TIME.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 47 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zohran Mamdani be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Zohran Mamdani | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 1,192,708 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Donald Trump | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 272,684 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will AI be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · AI | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 231,790 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Pope Leo XIV | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 222,199 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will James Talarico be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · James Talarico | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 106,763 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Bad Bunny be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Bad Bunny | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 93,352 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Mark Carney be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Mark Carney | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 79,473 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Abdul El-Sayed | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 53,169 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Elon Musk | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 51,229 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Dario Amodei be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Dario Amodei | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 38,639 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Taylor Swift | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 36,180 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Benjamin Netanyahu | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 35,130 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Sam Altman be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Sam Altman | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 31,096 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Mojtaba Khamenei | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 23,598 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · ChatGPT | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 22,021 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Annie Andrews be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Annie Andrews | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 21,085 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Scott Colom be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Scott Colom | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 19,997 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jerome Powell be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Jerome Powell | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 19,499 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jon Ossoff be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Jon Ossoff | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 18,940 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Jeremy Hansen be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Jeremy Hansen | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 17,183 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Joshua Turek be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Joshua Turek | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 15,816 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Bernie Sanders be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Bernie Sanders | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 15,815 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Lionel Messi be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Lionel Messi | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 15,560 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Reid Wiseman be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Reid Wiseman | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 12,974 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 12,119 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Xi Jinping be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Xi Jinping | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 11,048 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Adam Hamilton be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Adam Hamilton | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 10,019 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Christina Koch be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Christina Koch | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 8,453 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Marco Rubio | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 7,736 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 6,113 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Alysa Liu be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Alysa Liu | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 6,034 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Kevin Warsh | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,695 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Victor Glover be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Victor Glover | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 4,739 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeast be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeast | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,208 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Péter Magyar be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Péter Magyar | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 3,163 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Pete Hegseth be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Pete Hegseth | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,774 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Shehbaz Sharif be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Shehbaz Sharif | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,577 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will JD Vance be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · JD Vance | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 2,321 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Hakeem Jeffries be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Hakeem Jeffries | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 2,071 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will Christopher Nolan be Time Person of the Year in 2026? · Christopher Nolan | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,900 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 47 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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