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Time Person of the Year 2020s on Kalshi
If Taylor Swift is Time's Person of the Decade for the 2020s, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Wall Street Journal, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
17%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
34% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Who will Time name as Person of the Decade? · Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 23,699 | Jan 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will Time name as Person of the Decade? · Elon Musk | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 22,586 | Jan 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will Time name as Person of the Decade? · Taylor Swift | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 8,329 | Jan 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will Time name as Person of the Decade? · Sam Altman | 9¢ | 9% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 4,080 | Jan 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will Time name as Person of the Decade? · Xi Jinping | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 3,173 | Jan 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Who will Time name as Person of the Decade? · Jensen Huang | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 2,023 | Jan 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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