Markets › Kalshi › Elections
East Timor presidential election on Kalshi
If Taur Matan Ruak wins the 2027 East Timorese presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Comissão Nacional de Eleições.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
12% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Taur Matan Ruak win the 2027 East Timorese presidential election? · Taur Matan Ruak | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Feb 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rui Maria de Araújo win the 2027 East Timorese presidential election? · Rui Maria de Araújo | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Feb 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lere Anan Timur win the 2027 East Timorese presidential election? · Lere Anan Timur | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Feb 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will José Ramos-Horta win the 2027 East Timorese presidential election? · José Ramos-Horta | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Feb 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joaquim da Fonseca win the 2027 East Timorese presidential election? · Joaquim da Fonseca | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Francisco Kalbuadi Lay win the 2027 East Timorese presidential election? · Francisco Kalbuadi Lay | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Feb 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Francisco Dionísio Fernandes win the 2027 East Timorese presidential election? · Francisco Dionísio Fernandes | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Feb 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bendito Freitas win the 2027 East Timorese presidential election? · Bendito Freitas | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Feb 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Armanda Berta dos Santos win the 2027 East Timorese presidential election? · Armanda Berta dos Santos | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Feb 29, 15:00 UTC |
| Will António da Conceição win the 2027 East Timorese presidential election? · António da Conceição | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Feb 29, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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