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Titled Tuesday Top Finishers on Kalshi
If Zhamsaran Tsydypov finishes in the top 5 in the Titled Tuesday chess competition, originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Liquipedia, Chess.com.
Market says (typical open contract)
34%
Median YES price across 303 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
69% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 34¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.31 | 35.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Hikaru Nakamura · Hikaru Nakamura | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 884 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 3 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Magnus Carlsen · Magnus Carlsen | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 575 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Vincent Keymer · Vincent Keymer | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 575 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Wesley So · Wesley So | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 532 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Hans Niemann · Hans Niemann | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 528 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 3 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Alireza Firouzja · Alireza Firouzja | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 476 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Fabiano Caruana · Fabiano Caruana | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 335 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Andy Woodward · Andy Woodward | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 335 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Jan-Krzysztof Duda · Jan-Krzysztof Duda | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 329 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Parham Maghsoodloo · Parham Maghsoodloo | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 328 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 5 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Alireza Firouzja · Alireza Firouzja | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 327 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Alireza Firouzja · Alireza Firouzja | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 325 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Matthias Bluebaum · Matthias Bluebaum | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 250 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 5 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Fabiano Caruana · Fabiano Caruana | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 250 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 5 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Wesley So · Wesley So | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 250 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 5 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Hans Niemann · Hans Niemann | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 249 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Liem Le · Liem Le | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 234 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 5 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Maxime Vachier-Lagrave · Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 224 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 3 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Hans Niemann · Hans Niemann | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 224 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 3 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Fabiano Caruana · Fabiano Caruana | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 224 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 5 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Jan-Krzysztof Duda · Jan-Krzysztof Duda | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 224 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Maxime Vachier-Lagrave · Maxime Vachier-Lagrave | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 224 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 5 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Vincent Keymer · Vincent Keymer | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 211 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Magnus Carlsen · Magnus Carlsen | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 204 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 5 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Parham Maghsoodloo · Parham Maghsoodloo | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 200 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Javokhir Sindarov · Javokhir Sindarov | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 200 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 5 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Liem Le · Liem Le | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 199 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 5 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Arjun Erigaisi · Arjun Erigaisi | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 199 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 3 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Hikaru Nakamura · Hikaru Nakamura | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 193 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Aleksei Sarana · Aleksei Sarana | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 177 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 5 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Hikaru Nakamura · Hikaru Nakamura | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 159 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 3 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Aleksei Sarana · Aleksei Sarana | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 152 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Arjun Erigaisi · Arjun Erigaisi | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 126 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 5 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Aleksei Sarana · Aleksei Sarana | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 125 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Vladislav Artemiev · Vladislav Artemiev | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 100 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 3 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Wesley So · Wesley So | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 100 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Bogdan-Daniel Deac · Bogdan-Daniel Deac | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 67 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Oleksandr Bortnyk · Oleksandr Bortnyk | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 57 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Tuan Minh Le · Tuan Minh Le | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 55 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
| Titled Tuesday Top 8 Finishers on Nov 10, 2026: Alexander Grischuk · Alexander Grischuk | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 54 | Nov 17, 16:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 303 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.