What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 5¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.33.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 5% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 5%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Crypto

Who will launch a token this year? on Kalshi

If CME Group launches a token after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Arbiscan, Axios, Base Explorer, Binance Chain Explorer, Bloomberg News, Coinbase, CoinDesk, CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap, CoinTelegraph, Decrypt, DeFi Llama, Etherscan, Kraken, major cryptocurrency exchanges including Binance, official blockchain explorers for the relevant networks, OKX, Polygonscan, project, Reuters, Solscan, the Associated Press, The Block, The Information, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

10% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
5¢ (now)	0.3¢	$3.33	5.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Arc launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? · Arc	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	23,777	Dec 31, 18:59 UTC
Will Exponent launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? · Exponent	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	11,579	Dec 31, 18:59 UTC
Will OpenSea launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? · OpenSea	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	8,204	Dec 31, 18:59 UTC
Will Abstract launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? · Abstract	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	8,003	Dec 31, 18:59 UTC
Will Fomo launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? · Fomo	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	7,694	Dec 31, 18:59 UTC
Will Ostium launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? · Ostium	13¢	13%	0.8¢	—	26%	7,091	Dec 31, 18:59 UTC
Will Base launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? · Base	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	9%	6,492	Dec 31, 18:59 UTC
Will Rabby launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? · Rabby	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	6,145	Dec 31, 18:59 UTC
Will MetaMask launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? · MetaMask	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	5,605	Dec 31, 18:59 UTC
Will Felix launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? · Felix	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	4,853	Dec 31, 18:59 UTC
Will Phantom launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? · Phantom	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	3,576	Dec 31, 18:59 UTC
Will Tempo launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? · Tempo	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	2,382	Dec 31, 18:59 UTC
Will CME Group launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? · CME Group	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	2,176	Dec 31, 18:59 UTC
Will Unit launch a token before Jan 1, 2027? · Unit	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	1,639	Dec 31, 18:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.