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token usage in month on Kalshi
If the OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) is above 975T tokens, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: OpenRouter - AI Model Rankings.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) be above 800T tokens? · Above 800T tokens | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 1,200 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) be above 825T tokens? · Above 825T tokens | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 764 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) be above 925T tokens? · Above 925T tokens | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 566 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) be above 950T tokens? · Above 950T tokens | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 522 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) be above 900T tokens? · Above 900T tokens | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 350 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) be above 650T tokens? · Above 650T tokens | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 306 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) be above 875T tokens? · Above 875T tokens | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 293 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) be above 500T tokens? · Above 500T tokens | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 292 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) be above 850T tokens? · Above 850T tokens | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 272 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) be above 750T tokens? · Above 750T tokens | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 228 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) be above 1,250T tokens? · Above 1,250T tokens | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 148 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) be above 1,100T tokens? · Above 1,100T tokens | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 97 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) be above 975T tokens? · Above 975T tokens | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 63 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
| Will OpenRouter AI token usage for November 2026 (Nov 2–Nov 29) be above 1,000T tokens? · Above 1,000T tokens | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 24 | Nov 30, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.