What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 36¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.24.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 38% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 36%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Toll Brothers on Kalshi

If Toll Brothers Inc. reports Above 2175 deliveries in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

36%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

72% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
36¢ (now)	1.6¢	$2.24	37.6%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 2175 deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 2175	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	Jun 16, 05:00 UTC
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 2125 deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 2125	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	Jun 16, 05:00 UTC
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 2075 deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 2075	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	Jun 16, 05:00 UTC
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 2025 deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 2025	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	Jun 16, 05:00 UTC
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 1975 deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 1975	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	Jun 16, 05:00 UTC
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 1925 deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 1925	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	72%	Jun 16, 05:00 UTC
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 1875 deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 1875	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	96%	Jun 16, 05:00 UTC
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 1825 deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 1825	68¢	68%	1.5¢	—	64%	Jun 16, 05:00 UTC
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 1775 deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 1775	81¢	81%	1.1¢	—	38%	Jun 16, 05:00 UTC
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 1725 deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 1725	90¢	90%	0.6¢	—	20%	Jun 16, 05:00 UTC
Will Toll Brothers Inc. report Above 1675 deliveries in Q1 2027? · Above 1675	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	Jun 16, 05:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.