What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 16¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.96.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 16% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 16%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Top 3 wealthiest people on Kalshi

If Warren Buffett is one of the three wealthiest people in the world on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Forbes.

Market says (typical open contract)

16%

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

31% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
15¢ (now)	0.9¢	$2.98	15.9%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Larry Page be one of the three wealthiest people in the world? · Larry Page	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	41%	14,151	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Elon Musk be one of the three wealthiest people in the world? · Elon Musk	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	17%	10,679	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Mark Zuckerberg be one of the three wealthiest people in the world? · Mark Zuckerberg	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	6,143	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Jeff Bezos be one of the three wealthiest people in the world? · Jeff Bezos	90¢	90%	0.7¢	—	21%	5,438	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Jensen Huang be one of the three wealthiest people in the world? · Jensen Huang	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	4,863	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Larry Ellison be one of the three wealthiest people in the world? · Larry Ellison	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	4,197	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Sergey Brin be one of the three wealthiest people in the world? · Sergey Brin	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	29%	1,643	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Warren Buffett be one of the three wealthiest people in the world? · Warren Buffett	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	1,283	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Steve Ballmer be one of the three wealthiest people in the world? · Steve Ballmer	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	31%	158	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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