Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Toast KPI on Kalshi
If Toast, Inc. reports Above 210000 total number of locations in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Toast, Inc. report Above 210 thousand total number of locations in Q1 2027? · Above 210 thousand | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 100 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Toast, Inc. report Above 208 thousand total number of locations in Q1 2027? · Above 208 thousand | 55¢ | 55% | 1.7¢ | — | 91% | 100 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Toast, Inc. report Above 200 thousand total number of locations in Q1 2027? · Above 200 thousand | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 100 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Toast, Inc. report Above 196 thousand total number of locations in Q1 2027? · Above 196 thousand | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 100 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Toast, Inc. report Above 206 thousand total number of locations in Q1 2027? · Above 206 thousand | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Toast, Inc. report Above 204 thousand total number of locations in Q1 2027? · Above 204 thousand | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
| Will Toast, Inc. report Above 202 thousand total number of locations in Q1 2027? · Above 202 thousand | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Sep 03, 20:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.