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WHO WILL ANNOUNCE A TOUR THIS YEAR? on Kalshi
If Madonna announces a new tour before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, ABC, The Information, CBS, The Washington Post, Pitchfork, Variety, Axios, CNN, Reuters, Billboard, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 40¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.10 | 41.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Sabrina Carpenter announce a new tour this year? · Sabrina Carpenter | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 45,139 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Justin Bieber announce a new tour this year? · Justin Bieber | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 17,289 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rihanna announce a new tour this year? · Rihanna | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 9,687 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bad Bunny announce a new tour this year? · Bad Bunny | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 8,491 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Drake announce a new tour this year? · Drake | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 8,393 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Doja Cat announce a new tour this year? · Doja Cat | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 8,294 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Coldplay announce a new tour this year? · Coldplay | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 6,914 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Weeknd announce a new tour this year? · The Weeknd | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 6,732 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Taylor Swift announce a new tour this year? · Taylor Swift | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 3,933 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Beyoncé announce a new tour this year? · Beyoncé | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 3,377 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicki Minaj announce a new tour this year? · Nicki Minaj | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 2,655 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kendrick Lamar announce a new tour this year? · Kendrick Lamar | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 2,464 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dua Lipa announce a new tour this year? · Dua Lipa | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 2,142 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lady Gaga announce a new tour this year? · Lady Gaga | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 2,029 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Adele announce a new tour this year? · Adele | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,997 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will SZA announce a new tour this year? · SZA | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 853 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Travis Scott announce a new tour this year? · Travis Scott | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 782 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Eminem announce a new tour this year? · Eminem | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 537 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Frank Ocean announce a new tour this year? · Frank Ocean | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 533 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Madonna announce a new tour this year? · Madonna | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 10 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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