What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 3¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.38.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 4% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 3%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Which countries will receive a lower US Travel Advisory level in 2026? on Kalshi

If the U.S. State Department issues, updates, or reaffirms a level 3 or lower travel advisory for Democratic Republic of the Congo after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: United States Department of State.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 18 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

7% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Iran? · Iran	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	32,678	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Syria? · Syria	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	8,671	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Lebanon? · Lebanon	9¢	9%	0.6¢	—	18%	8,401	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Somalia? · Somalia	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	3%	7,787	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Ukraine? · Ukraine	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	7,042	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Russia? · Russia	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,457	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Yemen? · Yemen	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	3,144	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Haiti? · Haiti	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	2,528	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Iraq? · Iraq	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	2,088	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Afghanistan? · Afghanistan	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,754	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Uganda? · Uganda	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	1,538	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Democratic Republic of the Congo? · Democratic Republic of the Congo	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	1,183	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for South Sudan? · South Sudan	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	533	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Gaza? · Gaza	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	418	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Burma (Myanmar)? · Burma (Myanmar)	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	326	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for North Korea? · North Korea	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	323	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Libya? · Libya	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	279	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the U.S. State Department issue a level 3 or lower warning for Sudan? · Sudan	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	264	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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