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Will Trump do anything today? on Kalshi
If Donald Trump has taken at least 9 presidential actions from Nov 8, 2026 through Nov 14, 2026 (as checked on the “Presidential Actions” page at whitehouse.gov at 10:00 AM ET on Nov 15, 2026), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the White House.
Market says (typical open contract)
31%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
62% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 31¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.41 | 32.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be at least 10 presidential actions in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 10 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 17,519 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be at least 9 presidential actions in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 9 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 11,010 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be at least 12 presidential actions in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 12 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 8,291 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be at least 2 presidential actions in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 2 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 5,034 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be at least 6 presidential actions in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 6 | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 4,387 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be at least 5 presidential actions in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 5 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,715 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be at least 3 presidential actions in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 3 | 74¢ | 74% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 743 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be at least 7 presidential actions in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 7 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 697 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be at least 4 presidential actions in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 4 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 183 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will there be at least 8 presidential actions in the week of Nov 8, 2026? · At least 8 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 6 | Nov 15, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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