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Who will leave the Trump administration on Kalshi
If Tom Homan leaves (or announces they will leave) the Trump administration after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: person, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Washington Post, Fox News, Reuters, CNN, official government records and registries, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, the Associated Press, Politico, the New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
22%
Median YES price across 108 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
43% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.73 | 23.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027? · Pete Hegseth | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 71% | 2,211,315 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027? · Kash Patel | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 1,397,906 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio leaves Secretary of State in before 2027? · Marco Rubio | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 633,697 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027? · Howard Lutnick | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 449,527 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027? · Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 334,408 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Scott Bessent leaves Secretary of the Treasury in before 2027? · Scott Bessent | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 130,078 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Amy Gleason leaves Acting Administrator of the US DOGE Service in before 2027? · Amy Gleason | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 111,428 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Tom Homan leaves White House Border Czar in before 2027? · Tom Homan | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 64,640 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Chris Wright leaves Secretary of Energy in before 2027? · Chris Wright | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 63,956 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Bill Pulte leaves FHFA Director in before 2027? · Bill Pulte | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 63,930 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Steve Witkoff leaves Special Envoy to the Middle East in before 2027? · Steve Witkoff | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 51,779 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Lee Zeldin leaves EPA Administrator in before 2027? · Lee Zeldin | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 50,960 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Mike Huckabee leaves Ambassador to Israel in before 2027? · Mike Huckabee | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 39,874 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Linda McMahon leaves Secretary of Education in before 2027? · Linda McMahon | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 33,758 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will John Ratcliffe leaves Director of the CIA in before 2027? · John Ratcliffe | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 30,604 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Sean Duffy leaves Secretary of Transportation in before 2027? · Sean Duffy | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 27,221 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Doug Collins leaves Secretary of Veterans Affairs in before 2027? · Doug Collins | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 26,715 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Mehmet Oz leaves CMS Administrator in before 2027? · Mehmet Oz | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 26,143 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Brooke Rollins leaves Secretary of Agriculture in before 2027? · Brooke Rollins | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 24,197 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Doug Burgum leaves Secretary of the Interior in before 2027? · Doug Burgum | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 20,755 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Steven Cheung be out as White House Communications Director before 2027? · Steven Cheung | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 20,411 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Brendan Carr leaves Chairman of the FCC in before 2027? · Brendan Carr | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 17,249 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Kelly Loeffler leaves Administrator of the Small Business Administration in before 2027? · Kelly Loeffler | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 17,038 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Russell Vought leaves OMB Director in before 2027? · Russell Vought | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 15,101 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Kevin Hassett leaves Director of the National Economic Council in before 2027? · Kevin Hassett | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 15,073 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Scott Turner leaves Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in before 2027? · Scott Turner | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 11,960 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Trent McCotter leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027? · Trent McCotter | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 11,295 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Peter Navarro leaves Senior Counselor to the President for Trade and Manufacturing in before 2027? · Peter Navarro | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 10,715 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Mike Waltz leaves Ambassador to the United Nations in before 2027? · Mike Waltz | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 10,610 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Jamieson Greer leaves United States Trade Representative in before 2027? · Jamieson Greer | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 7,929 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Will Scharf leaves White House Counsel in before 2027? · Will Scharf | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 7,366 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Todd Blanche leaves Attorney General in before 2027? · Todd Blanche | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 7,091 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Stanley Woodward leaves Associate Attorney General in before 2027? · Stanley Woodward | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 6,441 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Sergio Gor leaves Ambassador to India in before 2027? · Sergio Gor | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 6,134 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Tilman Fertitta leaves Ambassador to Italy in before 2027? · Tilman Fertitta | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 4,526 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Rodney Scott leaves CBP Commissioner in before 2027? · Rodney Scott | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 4,183 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Christopher Landau leaves Deputy Secretary of State in before 2027? · Christopher Landau | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 4,021 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Dan Caine leaves Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff in before 2027? · Dan Caine | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 3,904 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Joe Gebbia leaves Chief Design Officer in before 2027? · Joe Gebbia | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 3,280 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before Jul 1, 2027? · Marco Rubio | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,511 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 108 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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