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How low will Trump's approval get this year? on Kalshi
If Donald Trump's average approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is below 33.5%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: <polling organization>.
Market says (typical open contract)
49%
Median YES price across 14 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
97% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 49¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.79 | 50.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 36% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Below 36% | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 107,668 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 35% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Below 35% | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 87,915 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 33% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Below 33% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 83,187 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 34% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Below 34% | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 52,392 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 30% during Jan 2025 to Jan 2029 according to VoteHub? · Below 30% | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 584 | Jan 27, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 31% during Jan 2025 to Jan 2029 according to VoteHub? · Below 31% | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 488 | Jan 27, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 35.5% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Below 35.5% | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 255 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 35% during Jan 2025 to Jan 2029 according to VoteHub? · Below 35% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 179 | Jan 27, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 33.5% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Below 33.5% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 165 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 34.5% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Below 34.5% | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 150 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 32% during Jan 2025 to Jan 2029 according to VoteHub? · Below 32% | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 27 | Jan 27, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 33% during Jan 2025 to Jan 2029 according to VoteHub? · Below 33% | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 22 | Jan 27, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 36% during Jan 2025 to Jan 2029 according to VoteHub? · Below 36% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 16 | Jan 27, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 34% during Jan 2025 to Jan 2029 according to VoteHub? · Below 34% | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 7 | Jan 27, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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