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How high will Trump's approval get this year? on Kalshi
If Donald Trump's approval rating during Dec 11, 2025 to Dec 31, 2026 as reported by VoteHub is above 50%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: <polling organization>.
Market says (typical open contract)
3%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
6% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 43% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Above 43% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 69,337 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 44% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Above 44% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 31,831 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 50% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Above 50% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 22,050 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 45% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Above 45% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 19,153 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 47% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Above 47% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 17,475 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 46% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Above 46% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 11,142 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 49% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Above 49% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 4,342 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 48% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub? · Above 48% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 4,084 | Jan 07, 12:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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