What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 27¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.56.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 28% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 27%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch? on Kalshi

If construction begins on the proposed United States Triumphal Arch in Washington, D.C. after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Verge, ABC, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, The Guardian, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, South China Morning Post, NBC, BBC, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, ABC News Australia, The New York Times, Semafor, MSNBC, the Associated Press, CBC, Reuters, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

27%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

54% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
27¢ (now)	1.4¢	$2.56	28.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that construction begins on the proposed United States Triumphal Arch in Washington, D.C. before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	27¢	27%	1.4¢	—	54%	17,278	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that construction begins on the proposed United States Triumphal Arch in Washington, D.C. before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	7,559	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that construction begins on the proposed United States Triumphal Arch in Washington, D.C. before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	620	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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