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How many Truth Social posts will Trump delete? on Kalshi
If Donald Trump deletes at least 5 Truth Social posts in November 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Roll Call.
Market says (typical open contract)
44%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
87% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 43¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.00 | 44.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Nov 2026 be at least 15? · At least 15 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 556 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Nov 2026 be at least 5? · At least 5 | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 552 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Nov 2026 be at least 10? · At least 10 | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 70 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Nov 2026 be at least 20? · At least 20 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 49 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in Nov 2026 be at least 25? · At least 25 | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 41 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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