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How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026? on Kalshi
If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 58 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives.
Market says (typical open contract)
92%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
15% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 93¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $0.24 | 93.5% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 16 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 16 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 3,370 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 46 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 46 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 2,660 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 13 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 13 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2,013 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 40 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 40 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 1,004 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 19 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 869 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 22 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 802 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 35 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 35 | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 483 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 31 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 31 | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 473 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 25 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 25 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 404 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 28 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 28 | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 306 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 58 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 58 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 204 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 10 | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 104 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 be at least 52 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 52 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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