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How many people will Trump endorse this week? on Kalshi
If Donald Trump endorses at least 5 people for their election on Truth Social from Nov 7, 2026 through Nov 13, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Truth Social.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 23:27 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump endorse at least 25 people on Truth Social this week? · At least 25 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 17,981 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump endorse at least 1 people on Truth Social this week? · At least 1 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 1,724 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump endorse at least 10 people on Truth Social this week? · At least 10 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 976 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump endorse at least 5 people on Truth Social this week? · At least 5 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 903 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump endorse at least 3 people on Truth Social this week? · At least 3 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 799 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump endorse at least 15 people on Truth Social this week? · At least 15 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 491 | Nov 14, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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