What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 52¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.68.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 54% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 52%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Trump fires Lisa Cook on Kalshi

If Donald Trump states that he has fired Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: C-SPAN, ABC, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, Donald J. Trump, NBC, Axios, BBC, the White House, The Washington Post, CNN, Fox News, Semafor, MSNBC, the Associated Press, Reuters, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

52%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

96% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
52¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.68	53.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Trump state that he has fired Lisa Cook before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	3,435	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Trump state that he has fired Lisa Cook before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	63%	907	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Trump state that he has fired Lisa Cook before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	96%	65	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Trump state that he has fired Lisa Cook before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	65¢	65%	1.6¢	—	70%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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