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Number of Republican Senators voting to convict Trump on Kalshi
If the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment is at least 8 before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: U.S. Senate.
Market says (typical open contract)
31%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
62% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 31¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.41 | 32.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 5 before Jan 20, 2029? · At least 5 | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 2,891 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 8 before Jan 20, 2029? · At least 8 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 2,750 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 2 before Jan 20, 2029? · At least 2 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 2,485 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 15 before Jan 20, 2029? · At least 15 | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 1,675 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 12 before Jan 20, 2029? · At least 12 | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1,247 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 1 before Jan 20, 2029? · At least 1 | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,092 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican Senators voting guilty on the first Senate vote on convicting Donald Trump on an article of impeachment be at least 3 before Jan 20, 2029? · At least 3 | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 499 | Jan 20, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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