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Trump next national address on Kalshi
If President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Bloomberg News, CBS, NBC, the White House, the Associated Press, Reuters.
Market says (typical open contract)
72%
Median YES price across 5 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
56% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 72¢ (now) | 1.4¢ | $0.98 | 73.4% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 5,209 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 162 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Mar 1, 2027? · Before Mar 1, 2027 | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 29 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will it be reported by at least four of the seven Source Agencies named in Additional Details that President Donald Trump gives his next qualifying address to the nation, as defined in Additional Details before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027 | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 0 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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