Markets › Kalshi › Politics
Trump pardons on Kalshi
If Elon Musk has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: White House, New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
5%
Median YES price across 37 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.33 | 5.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Derek Chauvin | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 97,110 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Ghislaine Maxwell | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 88,897 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Sam Bankman-Fried | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 81,543 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Sean Combs | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 70,127 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will John Kiriakou receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · John Kiriakou | 7¢ | 7% | 0.4¢ | — | 14% | 31,509 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Michael Cohen receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Michael Cohen | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 24,955 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Martin Shkreli receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Martin Shkreli | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 24,951 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Donald Trump | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 22,291 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicolás Maduro receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Nicolás Maduro | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 19,522 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elizabeth Holmes receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Elizabeth Holmes | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 17,645 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Jared Kushner | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 17,374 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bill Hwang receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Bill Hwang | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 14,037 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Charlie Javice receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Charlie Javice | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 11,945 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Steve Bannon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Steve Bannon | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 10,515 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kenneth Petty receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Kenneth Petty | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 9,989 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Edward Snowden | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,786 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicole Daedone receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Nicole Daedone | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 8,339 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Keonne Rodriguez | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 6,972 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Rachel Cherwitz receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Rachel Cherwitz | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 6,830 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Jho Low receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Jho Low | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 6,690 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tim Leissner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Tim Leissner | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 6,678 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Torence Hatch | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 6,507 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Julian Assange | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 6,065 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Roger Ver | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 4,229 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Elon Musk receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Elon Musk | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 4,155 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Bob Menendez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Bob Menendez | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 4,096 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Eric Adams | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3,947 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Larry Householder | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 3,365 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Joseph Maldonado receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Joseph Maldonado | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,272 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tal Alexander receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Tal Alexander | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 3,064 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Leonard Glenn Francis receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Leonard Glenn Francis | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 2,659 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kimberly Guilfoyle receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Kimberly Guilfoyle | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 1,024 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Robin Smith receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Robin Smith | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 494 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Braden John Karony receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Braden John Karony | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 359 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Josh Wander receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Josh Wander | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 221 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Aimee Bock receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Aimee Bock | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 129 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Matt Borges receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027? · Matt Borges | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 29 | Jan 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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