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What will trump say on Kalshi
If Zohran / Mamdani, or a plural or possessive form of Zohran / Mamdani, is stated by Donald Trump after November 9, 2026 at 8:30am ET and before Nov 16, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, PBS, the President of the United States, CBS, NBC, Bloomberg, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
34%
Median YES price across 41 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
69% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 34¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.31 | 35.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Abu Dhabi" before Nov 16, 2026? · Abu Dhabi | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,443 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Tomahawk" before Nov 16, 2026? · Tomahawk | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,568 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Space Force" before Nov 16, 2026? · Space Force | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,998 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" before Nov 16, 2026? · Make Iran Great Again | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,822 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" before Nov 16, 2026? · Peace in the Middle East | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1,624 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Ceasefire" before Nov 16, 2026? · Ceasefire | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 1,248 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Soleimani" before Nov 16, 2026? · Soleimani | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,242 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Cuba / Cuban" before Nov 16, 2026? · Cuba / Cuban | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,124 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Prediction Market / Predictive Market" before Nov 16, 2026? · Prediction Market / Predictive Market | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 1,087 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "UFO / UAP" before Nov 16, 2026? · UFO / UAP | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 822 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" before Nov 16, 2026? · Crypto / Bitcoin | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 756 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Melania" before Nov 16, 2026? · Melania | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 690 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Ranked Choice / Ranked-Choice" before Nov 16, 2026? · Ranked Choice / Ranked-Choice | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 674 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Uranium" before Nov 16, 2026? · Uranium | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 611 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Zohran / Mamdani" before Nov 16, 2026? · Zohran / Mamdani | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 586 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Rigged Election / Stolen Election" before Nov 16, 2026? · Rigged Election / Stolen Election | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 539 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Superintelligence / Super Intelligence" before Nov 16, 2026? · Superintelligence / Super Intelligence | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 523 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Refinery" before Nov 16, 2026? · Refinery | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 457 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Robot / Robotic / Robotics" before Nov 16, 2026? · Robot / Robotic / Robotics | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 448 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Diesel" before Nov 16, 2026? · Diesel | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 391 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Filibuster" before Nov 16, 2026? · Filibuster | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 377 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Ilhan / Omar" before Nov 16, 2026? · Ilhan / Omar | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 373 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Moon" before Nov 16, 2026? · Moon | 43¢ | 43% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 362 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Third Term" before Nov 16, 2026? · Third Term | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 358 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Golden Dome" before Nov 16, 2026? · Golden Dome | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 332 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Dividend / Stimulus" before Nov 16, 2026? · Dividend / Stimulus | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 331 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Quantum" before Nov 16, 2026? · Quantum | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 328 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Antifa" before Nov 16, 2026? · Antifa | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 302 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Vivek / Ramaswamy" before Nov 16, 2026? · Vivek / Ramaswamy | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 299 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Nobel" before Nov 16, 2026? · Nobel | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 296 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Epstein" before Nov 16, 2026? · Epstein | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 280 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Bibi / Netanyahu" before Nov 16, 2026? · Bibi / Netanyahu | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 259 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Cybersecurity / Cyber Security" before Nov 16, 2026? · Cybersecurity / Cyber Security | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 56% | 238 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis" before Nov 16, 2026? · Marijuana / Weed / Cannabis | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 236 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Ethanol" before Nov 16, 2026? · Ethanol | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 172 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "GDP" before Nov 16, 2026? · GDP | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 155 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Canada / Canadian" before Nov 16, 2026? · Canada / Canadian | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 151 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Autopen / Auto Pen" before Nov 16, 2026? · Autopen / Auto Pen | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 113 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Mortgage" before Nov 16, 2026? · Mortgage | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 90 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Houthi" before Nov 16, 2026? · Houthi | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 79 | Nov 16, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 41 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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