Markets › Kalshi › Mentions
Will Trump mention company on Kalshi
If Verizon, or a plural or possessive form of Verizon, is stated by Donald Trump before Dec 1, 2026 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, PBS, the President of the United States, CBS, NBC, Bloomberg, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
63%
Median YES price across 44 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
74% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 63¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $1.30 | 64.6% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Trump say "Eli Lilly / LLY" before Dec 1, 2026? · Eli Lilly / LLY | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,949 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Nvidia / NVDA" before Dec 1, 2026? · Nvidia / NVDA | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,934 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "SpaceX / SPCX" before Dec 1, 2026? · SpaceX / SPCX | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,677 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Hyundai / HYMTF" before Dec 1, 2026? · Hyundai / HYMTF | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,427 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Netflix / NFLX" before Dec 1, 2026? · Netflix / NFLX | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,140 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "General Motors / GM" before Dec 1, 2026? · General Motors / GM | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 4,104 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Uber" before Dec 1, 2026? · Uber | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,887 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Apple / AAPL" before Dec 1, 2026? · Apple / AAPL | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,463 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "X / Twitter" before Dec 1, 2026? · X / Twitter | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,233 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Pfizer / PFE" before Dec 1, 2026? · Pfizer / PFE | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,899 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Fox News" before Dec 1, 2026? · Fox News | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,452 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "MS NOW / MSNBC" before Dec 1, 2026? · MS NOW / MSNBC | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,172 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Saronic" before Dec 1, 2026? · Saronic | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 1,915 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz" before Dec 1, 2026? · Mercedes / Mercedes-Benz | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,735 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "eBay" before Dec 1, 2026? · eBay | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 1,489 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "TSMC / TSM" before Dec 1, 2026? · TSMC / TSM | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 1,144 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Rigetti / RGTI" before Dec 1, 2026? · Rigetti / RGTI | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,061 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "ExxonMobil / XOM" before Dec 1, 2026? · ExxonMobil / XOM | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 993 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Oracle / ORCL" before Dec 1, 2026? · Oracle / ORCL | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 84% | 946 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Qualcomm / QCOM" before Dec 1, 2026? · Qualcomm / QCOM | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 902 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "ChatGPT / OpenAI" before Dec 1, 2026? · ChatGPT / OpenAI | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 894 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Anthropic / Claude" before Dec 1, 2026? · Anthropic / Claude | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 785 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Tesla / TSLA" before Dec 1, 2026? · Tesla / TSLA | 64¢ | 64% | 1.6¢ | — | 72% | 780 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "TikTok" before Dec 1, 2026? · TikTok | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 542 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Mastercard" before Dec 1, 2026? · Mastercard | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 402 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Honda / HMC" before Dec 1, 2026? · Honda / HMC | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 336 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Microsoft / MSFT" before Dec 1, 2026? · Microsoft / MSFT | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 292 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Texas Instruments" before Dec 1, 2026? · Texas Instruments | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 286 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "BlackRock" before Dec 1, 2026? · BlackRock | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 263 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Paramount / PSKY" before Dec 1, 2026? · Paramount / PSKY | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 245 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "BBC" before Dec 1, 2026? · BBC | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 239 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "DoorDash / DASH" before Dec 1, 2026? · DoorDash / DASH | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 208 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Dell" before Dec 1, 2026? · Dell | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 173 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Meta" before Dec 1, 2026? · Meta | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 167 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "JPMorgan / JPM" before Dec 1, 2026? · JPMorgan / JPM | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 141 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "IBM" before Dec 1, 2026? · IBM | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 102 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Micron / MU" before Dec 1, 2026? · Micron / MU | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 74 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Turning Point" before Dec 1, 2026? · Turning Point | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 65 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Verizon" before Dec 1, 2026? · Verizon | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 29 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Trump say "Amazon / AMZN" before Dec 1, 2026? · Amazon / AMZN | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 29 | Dec 01, 15:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 44 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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