What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 22¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.71.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 24% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 22%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Mentions

Trump Nickname on Kalshi

If Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus, or a plural or possessive form of Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus, is stated by Donald Trump after October 1, 2026 at 10:00am ET and before Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, The Information, PBS, the President of the United States, CBS, NBC, Bloomberg, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The Washington Post, the Associated Press, Politico, The New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

22%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

45% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
22¢ (now)	1.2¢	$2.73	23.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jan 1, 2027? · Marjorie Traitor Greene	100¢	100%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,001	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Piggy" before Jan 1, 2027? · Piggy	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	65%	3,276	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Biden Crime Family" before Jan 1, 2027? · Biden Crime Family	11¢	11%	0.7¢	—	22%	2,670	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Low Energy" before Jan 1, 2027? · Low Energy	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	1,663	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" before Jan 1, 2027? · Comrade Kamala	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	1,170	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Little Communist" before Jan 1, 2027? · Little Communist	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	31%	897	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Fat Slob" before Jan 1, 2027? · Fat Slob	26¢	26%	1.4¢	—	53%	787	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Fake Tapper" before Jan 1, 2027? · Fake Tapper	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	629	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus" before Jan 1, 2027? · Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus	31¢	31%	1.5¢	—	62%	595	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Crying Chuck / Cryin Chuck" before Jan 1, 2027? · Crying Chuck / Cryin Chuck	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	83%	526	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump say "Rocket Man" before Jan 1, 2027? · Rocket Man	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	385	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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