What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 46¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.89.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 48% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 46%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Will Trump talk to a sitting Supreme Court justice? on Kalshi

If Donald Trump and any sitting Supreme Court justice meet (including phone calls) after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Deutsche Welle, The White House, Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, CNBC, New York Times, POLITICO, NBC, CBS News, BBC, ABC News, The Washington Post, CNN, Fox News, Reuters, Financial Times, ABC News Australia, Al Jazeera English, MSNBC.

Market says (typical open contract)

46%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

92% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
46¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.89	47.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) any sitting Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	46¢	46%	1.7¢	—	92%	4,873	Jan 01, 14:59 UTC
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) any sitting Supreme Court justice before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	67¢	67%	1.5¢	—	66%	16	Apr 01, 13:59 UTC
Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) any sitting Supreme Court justice before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	28¢	28%	1.4¢	—	55%	5	Dec 01, 14:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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