What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 71¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.02.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 72% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 71%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

TSA check-ins this week on Kalshi

If weekly average TSA airport screenings are above 2.8 million for the week ending November 15, 2026, according to the TSA, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Transportation Security Administration.

Market says (typical open contract)

71%

Median YES price across 21 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

58% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
71¢ (now)	1.4¢	$1.02	72.4%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will more than 2350000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.35 million	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	71%	2,385	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2300000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.3 million	71¢	71%	1.4¢	—	58%	1,582	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2250000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.25 million	88¢	88%	0.7¢	—	24%	1,160	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2200000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.2 million	96¢	96%	0.3¢	—	9%	321	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2800000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.8 million	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2750000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.75 million	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2700000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.7 million	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2650000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.65 million	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2600000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.6 million	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2550000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.55 million	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2500000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.5 million	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2450000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.45 million	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2400000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.4 million	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2150000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.15 million	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2100000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.1 million	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2050000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2.05 million	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 2000000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 2 million	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 1950000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 1.95 million	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 1900000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 1.9 million	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 1850000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 1.85 million	98¢	98%	0.1¢	—	4%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will more than 1800000 people be screened by the TSA on average this week? · Above 1.8 million	98¢	98%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.