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Tesla KPI on Kalshi
If Tesla, Inc. reports above 145000 total employee headcount worldwide in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
80%
Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
39% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 80¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $0.70 | 81.1% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.75 million total deliveries in 2026? · Above 1.75 million | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 14,597 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.9 million total deliveries in 2026? · Above 1.9 million | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 9,742 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.7 million total deliveries in 2026? · Above 1.7 million | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 9,245 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.5 million total deliveries in 2026? · Above 1.5 million | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 7,750 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.6 million total deliveries in 2026? · Above 1.6 million | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 6,743 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.55 million total deliveries in 2026? · Above 1.55 million | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 6,027 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.65 million total deliveries in 2026? · Above 1.65 million | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 5,619 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.8 million total deliveries in 2026? · Above 1.8 million | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 5,161 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.9 million total production in 2026? · Above 1.9 million | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 4,316 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla, Inc. report above 130000 total employee headcount worldwide in 2026? · Above 130000 | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 4,124 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla, Inc. report above 140000 total employee headcount worldwide in 2026? · Above 140000 | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 3,684 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.85 million total deliveries in 2026? · Above 1.85 million | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 3,241 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.85 million total production in 2026? · Above 1.85 million | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 2,774 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.8 million total production in 2026? · Above 1.8 million | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 2,706 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla, Inc. report above 135000 total employee headcount worldwide in 2026? · Above 135000 | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 2,586 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla, Inc. report above 145000 total employee headcount worldwide in 2026? · Above 145000 | 28¢ | 28% | 1.4¢ | — | 57% | 2,574 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.65 million total production in 2026? · Above 1.65 million | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 2,440 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.75 million total production in 2026? · Above 1.75 million | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 1,164 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.7 million total production in 2026? · Above 1.7 million | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 1,131 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla, Inc. report above 125000 total employee headcount worldwide in 2026? · Above 125000 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 302 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.5 million total production in 2026? · Above 1.5 million | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 202 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla, Inc. report above 120000 total employee headcount worldwide in 2026? · Above 120000 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 193 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.6 million total production in 2026? · Above 1.6 million | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 61 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Tesla Inc. report Above 1.55 million total production in 2026? · Above 1.55 million | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 39 | Mar 31, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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