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How many MPs will vote for the no-confidence motion against Tusk? on Kalshi
If the number of Sejm deputies voting for a constructive vote of no confidence in the Council of Ministers headed by Donald Tusk is at least 50 in the first such vote held after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Sejm of the Republic of Poland.
Market says (typical open contract)
18%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
37% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.87 | 19.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of Sejm deputies voting for a constructive vote of no confidence in the Council of Ministers headed by Donald Tusk be at least 200 in the first such vote held after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 200 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 105 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Sejm deputies voting for a constructive vote of no confidence in the Council of Ministers headed by Donald Tusk be at least 190 in the first such vote held after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 190 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 105 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Sejm deputies voting for a constructive vote of no confidence in the Council of Ministers headed by Donald Tusk be at least 150 in the first such vote held after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 150 | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 100 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Sejm deputies voting for a constructive vote of no confidence in the Council of Ministers headed by Donald Tusk be at least 50 in the first such vote held after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 50 | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Sejm deputies voting for a constructive vote of no confidence in the Council of Ministers headed by Donald Tusk be at least 215 in the first such vote held after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 215 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Sejm deputies voting for a constructive vote of no confidence in the Council of Ministers headed by Donald Tusk be at least 210 in the first such vote held after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 210 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Sejm deputies voting for a constructive vote of no confidence in the Council of Ministers headed by Donald Tusk be at least 205 in the first such vote held after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 205 | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Sejm deputies voting for a constructive vote of no confidence in the Council of Ministers headed by Donald Tusk be at least 180 in the first such vote held after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027? · At least 180 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Jan 01, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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