What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 18¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.85.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 20% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 18%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

Will “The Last of Us” Season 3 be released on HBO Max for streaming before May 1st of 2026? on Kalshi

If it has been announced that "The Last of Us" Season 3 will release before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Axios, CBS, CNN, Fox News, MSNBC, Politico, Reuters, Semafor, the Associated Press, The Information, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Variety.

Market says (typical open contract)

18%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

50%

Five-minute and fifteen-minute moves have no measurable predictability; our own 30-day test of the most popular entry rule lost on 76% of trades.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

A coin flip with a cover charge. Skill contributes nothing at this horizon; the fee always does.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
18¢ (now)	1.0¢	$2.87	19.0%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released? · Before Jul 2027	18¢	18%	1.1¢	—	100%	16,226	Jul 01, 14:00 UTC
When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released? · Before Jan 2027	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	100%	9,371	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released? · Before Apr 2027	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	100%	7,130	Apr 01, 14:00 UTC
When will "The Last of Us" Season 3 be released? · Before Jan 2028	86¢	86%	0.9¢	—	100%	2,541	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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