What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 10¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.15.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 11% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 10%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Entertainment

How many twitch subs will kai cenat have on Kalshi

If KaiCenat's peak number of active paid Twitch subscribers is at least 800000 at any time before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bloomberg News, Kotaku, Polygon, Reuters, TechCrunch, the Associated Press, The New York Times, The Verge, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, Twitch, TwitchTracker.

Market says (typical open contract)

10%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

20% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
10¢ (now)	0.6¢	$3.15	10.6%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will KaiCenat reach 600000 or more subscribers? · 600,000 or more	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	24%	3,091	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will KaiCenat reach 1000000 or more subscribers? · 1,000,000 or more	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	893	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will KaiCenat reach 1100000 or more subscribers? · 1,100,000 or more	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	268	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will KaiCenat reach 800000 or more subscribers? · 800,000 or more	10¢	10%	0.7¢	—	21%	186	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will KaiCenat reach 700000 or more subscribers? · 700,000 or more	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	86	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will KaiCenat reach 1200000 or more subscribers? · 1,200,000 or more	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	42	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.