What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 3¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.40.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 3% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 3%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Unemployment spike on Kalshi

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.8%, the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 24 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

6% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
How high will unemployment get before 2027? · Above 5%	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	346,566	Jan 08, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2027? · Above 6%	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	221,465	Jan 08, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2027? · Above 7%	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	119,020	Jan 08, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2027? · Above 4.5%	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	44,331	Jan 08, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2027? · Above 8%	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	22,609	Jan 08, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2027? · Above 9%	1¢	1%	0.0¢	—	1%	21,006	Jan 08, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2027? · Above 10%	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	13,130	Jan 08, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2027? · Above 4.8%	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	12,844	Jan 08, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2027? · Above 6.5%	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	8,282	Jan 08, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2027? · Above 5.5%	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	7,723	Jan 08, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2027? · Above 17%	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	5%	4,359	Jan 08, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2030? · Above 9%	30¢	30%	1.5¢	—	59%	4,291	Jan 04, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2027? · Above 15%	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,863	Jan 08, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2027? · Above 20%	1¢	1%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,717	Jan 08, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2027? · Above 12%	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	5%	3,640	Jan 08, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2030? · Above 10%	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	3,550	Jan 04, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2030? · Above 8%	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	2,276	Jan 04, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2030? · Above 7%	27¢	27%	1.4¢	—	54%	2,057	Jan 04, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2030? · Above 5%	49¢	49%	1.7¢	—	98%	1,897	Jan 04, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2030? · Above 12%	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	1,854	Jan 04, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2030? · Above 17%	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	1,574	Jan 04, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2030? · Above 20%	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	1,271	Jan 04, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2030? · Above 15%	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	1,154	Jan 04, 13:25 UTC
How high will unemployment get before 2030? · Above 6%	34¢	34%	1.6¢	—	67%	935	Jan 04, 13:25 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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