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UCL League Phase Bottom of Table on Kalshi
If Villarreal finishes at the bottom of the table in the league phase of the 2026-27 Champions League, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: UCL.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 36 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Slovan Bratislava finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Slovan Bratislava | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 2,711 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Slavia Prague finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Slavia Prague | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 1,600 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Sabah Masazir finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Sabah Masazir | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 1,521 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Viking finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Viking | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 712 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will LASK finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · LASK | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 686 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will AEK Athens finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · AEK Athens | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 357 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Lens finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Lens | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 312 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Real Madrid finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Real Madrid | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 268 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Bodoe/Glimt finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Bodoe/Glimt | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 249 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester City finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Manchester City | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 114 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Barcelona finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Barcelona | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 91 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Real Betis finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Real Betis | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 71 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Manchester United finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Manchester United | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Villarreal finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Villarreal | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Stuttgart finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Stuttgart | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Sporting CP finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Sporting CP | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Shakhtar finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Shakhtar | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Roma finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Roma | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Leipzig finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Leipzig | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will PSV Eindhoven finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · PSV Eindhoven | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will PSG finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · PSG | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Napoli finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Napoli | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Lille finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Lille | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Liverpool finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Liverpool | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Inter finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Inter | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Galatasaray finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Galatasaray | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Feyenoord finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Feyenoord | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Fenerbahce finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Fenerbahce | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Porto finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Porto | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Como finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Como | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Dortmund finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Dortmund | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Club Brugge finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Club Brugge | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Bayern Munich finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Bayern Munich | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Aston Villa finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Aston Villa | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Atletico finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Atletico | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
| Will Arsenal finish bottom of the table in the league phase for the Champions League? · Arsenal | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Feb 11, 01:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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