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UEFA Champions League Game on Kalshi
If Tie is the result of the Galatasaray vs Aston Villa professional Champions League soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 24, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
18%
Median YES price across 27 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
35% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Napoli wins · Napoli | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 4,317 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Dortmund wins · Dortmund | 10¢ | 10% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 233 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Aston Villa wins · Aston Villa | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 232 | Nov 26, 17:45 UTC |
| Real Madrid wins · Real Madrid | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 189 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| AEK Athens wins · AEK Athens | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 163 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 85 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Arsenal wins · Arsenal | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 77 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Porto wins · Porto | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 42 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 9 | Nov 26, 17:45 UTC |
| Manchester City wins · Manchester City | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 1 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Real Betis wins · Real Betis | 76¢ | 76% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 0 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Como wins · Como | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Galatasaray wins · Galatasaray | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 0 | Nov 26, 17:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Nov 26, 17:45 UTC |
| Bodoe/Glimt wins · Bodoe/Glimt | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 0 | Nov 26, 17:45 UTC |
| LASK wins · LASK | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 26, 17:45 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 0 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Lens wins · Lens | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Leipzig wins · Leipzig | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Eindhoven wins · Eindhoven | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 0 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 0 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Slovan Bratislava wins · Slovan Bratislava | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Tie is the result · Tie | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
| Feyenoord wins · Feyenoord | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 68% | 0 | Nov 26, 20:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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