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League to Win UEFA Champions League on Kalshi
If a team from Slovak Super Liga wins the Champions League in the 2026-27 Season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will a team from Austrian Bundesliga win the Champions League? · Austrian Bundesliga | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,544 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from Eliteserien win the Champions League? · Eliteserien | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3,056 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from Ukrainian Premier League win the Champions League? · Ukrainian Premier League | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,068 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from English Premier League win the Champions League? · English Premier League | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 942 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from La Liga win the Champions League? · La Liga | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 412 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from Slovak Super Liga win the Champions League? · Slovak Super Liga | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 300 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from Bundesliga win the Champions League? · Bundesliga | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 294 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from Ligue 1 win the Champions League? · Ligue 1 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 214 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from Serie A win the Champions League? · Serie A | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 113 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from Süper Lig win the Champions League? · Süper Lig | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 85 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from Greece Super League win the Champions League? · Greece Super League | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from Azerbaijan Premier League win the Champions League? · Azerbaijan Premier League | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from Liga Portugal win the Champions League? · Liga Portugal | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from Eredivisie win the Champions League? · Eredivisie | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from Czech First League win the Champions League? · Czech First League | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 0 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
| Will a team from Belgian Pro League win the Champions League? · Belgian Pro League | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 0 | Jun 19, 21:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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