What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 72¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.96.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 74% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 72%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

UC resident undergraduate tuition in [year] on Kalshi

If the annual mandatory systemwide undergraduate tuition and fees for the University of California cohort first enrolled in AY 2027–28 for the 2027–28 academic year is above $16,500, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.

Market says (typical open contract)

72%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

55% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
72¢ (now)	1.4¢	$0.98	73.4%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the annual mandatory systemwide undergraduate tuition and fees for the University of California cohort first enrolled in AY 2027–28 for the 2027–28 academic year be above $16,000? · Above $16,000	91¢	91%	0.6¢	—	18%	581	Jul 31, 13:59 UTC
Will the annual mandatory systemwide undergraduate tuition and fees for the University of California cohort first enrolled in AY 2027–28 for the 2027–28 academic year be above $16,100? · Above $16,100	84¢	84%	1.0¢	—	33%	129	Jul 31, 13:59 UTC
Will the annual mandatory systemwide undergraduate tuition and fees for the University of California cohort first enrolled in AY 2027–28 for the 2027–28 academic year be above $16,300? · Above $16,300	29¢	29%	1.4¢	—	57%	40	Jul 31, 13:59 UTC
Will the annual mandatory systemwide undergraduate tuition and fees for the University of California cohort first enrolled in AY 2027–28 for the 2027–28 academic year be above $16,200? · Above $16,200	72¢	72%	1.4¢	—	55%	36	Jul 31, 13:59 UTC
Will the annual mandatory systemwide undergraduate tuition and fees for the University of California cohort first enrolled in AY 2027–28 for the 2027–28 academic year be above $16,400? · Above $16,400	14¢	14%	0.8¢	—	27%	5	Jul 31, 13:59 UTC
Will the annual mandatory systemwide undergraduate tuition and fees for the University of California cohort first enrolled in AY 2027–28 for the 2027–28 academic year be above $16,500? · Above $16,500	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	1	Jul 31, 13:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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