What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.41.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 3% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

UEFA Nations League on Kalshi

If Wales is the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League champion, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

5% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League? · Spain	44¢	44%	1.7¢	—	89%	58,535	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will England win the UEFA Nations League? · England	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	41%	24,369	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will France win the UEFA Nations League? · France	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	17,936	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will Portugal win the UEFA Nations League? · Portugal	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	13,442	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will Netherlands win the UEFA Nations League? · Netherlands	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	7,314	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will Germany win the UEFA Nations League? · Germany	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	5,655	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will Greece win the UEFA Nations League? · Greece	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	5,143	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will Norway win the UEFA Nations League? · Norway	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	3,896	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will Belgium win the UEFA Nations League? · Belgium	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	3,757	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will Italy win the UEFA Nations League? · Italy	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	3,242	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will Croatia win the UEFA Nations League? · Croatia	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	603	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will Turkiye win the UEFA Nations League? · Turkiye	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	467	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will Wales win the UEFA Nations League? · Wales	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	280	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will Denmark win the UEFA Nations League? · Denmark	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	272	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will Serbia win the UEFA Nations League? · Serbia	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC
Will Czechia win the UEFA Nations League? · Czechia	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	0	Jun 28, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.