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1st Half Winner on Kalshi
If Turkiye is the winner of the first half in the Turkiye vs Belgium professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 after 45 minutes plus stoppage time, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, Fox Sports.
Market says (typical open contract)
36%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
73% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 36¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.24 | 37.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkiye wins 1st Half · Turkiye wins 1st Half | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Tie 1st Half · Tie 1st Half | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Belgium wins 1st Half · Belgium wins 1st Half | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Tie 1st Half · Tie 1st Half | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Cyprus wins 1st Half · Cyprus wins 1st Half | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
| Armenia wins 1st Half · Armenia wins 1st Half | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 14, 17:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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