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UEFA Nations League Group Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Wales is one of the teams to qualify from Group A4 for the knockout stages in the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, UEFA.
Market says (typical open contract)
57%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
85% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 57¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.51 | 58.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A2? · Germany | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 571 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Croatia qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A3? · Croatia | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 337 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Spain qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A3? · Spain | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 184 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Portugal qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A4? · Portugal | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 150 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will England qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A3? · England | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 137 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will France qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A1? · France | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 56 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Norway qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A4? · Norway | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 27 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Greece qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A2? · Greece | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Netherlands qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A2? · Netherlands | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Wales qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A4? · Wales | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Denmark qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A4? · Denmark | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Czechia qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A3? · Czechia | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Serbia qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A2? · Serbia | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Turkiye qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A1? · Turkiye | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Italy qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A1? · Italy | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Belgium qualify from UEFA Nations League Group A1? · Belgium | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 85% | 0 | Dec 02, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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