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UEFA Nations League Round Qualifiers on Kalshi
If Wales is one of the teams to qualify for the Final in the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ESPN, UEFA.
Market says (typical open contract)
6%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6¢ (now) | 0.4¢ | $3.29 | 6.4% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Portugal qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · Portugal | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 1,442 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will England qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · England | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 1,352 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will France qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · France | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 165 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Spain qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · Spain | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 48 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Netherlands qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · Netherlands | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 33 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Italy qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · Italy | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 17 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Norway qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · Norway | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 14 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Germany qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · Germany | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 11 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Belgium qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · Belgium | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 9 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Greece qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · Greece | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 5 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Croatia qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · Croatia | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 3 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Denmark qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · Denmark | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 2 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Wales qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · Wales | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Turkiye qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · Turkiye | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Serbia qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · Serbia | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Czechia qualify for the UEFA Nations League Final? · Czechia | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 28, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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