What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.41.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 3% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Sports

Correct Score on Kalshi

If Turkiye wins 5-2 in the Turkiye vs Belgium professional UEFA Nations League soccer game originally scheduled for Nov 12, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ESPN.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 60 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 17:55 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

5% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
3¢ (now)	0.2¢	$3.40	3.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Final score Turkiye wins 5-2? · Turkiye wins 5-2	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	216	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Belgium wins 5-2? · Belgium wins 5-2	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	50	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Draw 3-3? · Draw 3-3	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	10	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Turkiye wins 5-1? · Turkiye wins 5-1	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Turkiye wins 5-0? · Turkiye wins 5-0	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Turkiye wins 4-3? · Turkiye wins 4-3	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Turkiye wins 4-2? · Turkiye wins 4-2	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Turkiye wins 4-1? · Turkiye wins 4-1	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Turkiye wins 4-0? · Turkiye wins 4-0	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Belgium wins 4-3? · Belgium wins 4-3	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Turkiye wins 3-2? · Turkiye wins 3-2	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Turkiye wins 3-1? · Turkiye wins 3-1	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Turkiye wins 3-0? · Turkiye wins 3-0	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Belgium wins 4-2? · Belgium wins 4-2	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Belgium wins 3-2? · Belgium wins 3-2	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Draw 2-2? · Draw 2-2	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Turkiye wins 2-1? · Turkiye wins 2-1	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Turkiye wins 2-0? · Turkiye wins 2-0	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Belgium wins 5-1? · Belgium wins 5-1	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Belgium wins 4-1? · Belgium wins 4-1	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Belgium wins 3-1? · Belgium wins 3-1	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Belgium wins 2-1? · Belgium wins 2-1	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Draw 1-1? · Draw 1-1	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	20%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Turkiye wins 1-0? · Turkiye wins 1-0	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Belgium wins 5-0? · Belgium wins 5-0	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Belgium wins 4-0? · Belgium wins 4-0	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Belgium wins 3-0? · Belgium wins 3-0	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Belgium wins 2-0? · Belgium wins 2-0	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Belgium wins 1-0? · Belgium wins 1-0	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Draw 0-0? · Draw 0-0	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Armenia wins 5-2? · Armenia wins 5-2	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Armenia wins 5-1? · Armenia wins 5-1	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Armenia wins 5-0? · Armenia wins 5-0	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Armenia wins 4-3? · Armenia wins 4-3	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Armenia wins 4-2? · Armenia wins 4-2	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Armenia wins 4-1? · Armenia wins 4-1	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Armenia wins 4-0? · Armenia wins 4-0	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Cyprus wins 4-3? · Cyprus wins 4-3	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Draw 3-3? · Draw 3-3	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC
Final score Armenia wins 3-2? · Armenia wins 3-2	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	0	Nov 14, 23:00 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 60 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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